Posts Tagged ‘Drop’


So now that the summer transfer window has closed, it’s time to revamp my predictions for the 2017/18 season. Last year I didn’t make any changes, but this year it’s a different story. I’m moving some pieces around, mainly Arsenal, who I’m dropping two spots to 7th place. I initially had them in 5th, but so much has gone wrong with them only three weeks into the season it’s mind boggling.

It shouldn’t be surprising to anyone that Arsenal will struggle this season, but what should surprise everyone is just how bad they actually are. It’s ineptitude both on the field and behind the scenes. Arsenal is no stranger to bungling the transfer market, but this summer window took that to new, epic levels. There appeared to be a mass exodus at the Emirates, as more players wanted out than in. It was no secret Alexis Sanchez wanted out, but as the summer wore on, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain turned down a 180,000 a week contract to remain at Arsenal and instead accepted less money just to get out of dodge and sign with Liverpool. Lucas Perez, who never really settled in with the Gunners, wanted back to his former club in Spain. Shkrodran Mustafi wanted to abandon ship after only one season in North London as well, hoping to escape to Inter Milan. Joel Campbell wanted to be sold rather than be loaned out, yet again. Kieran Gibbs smartly waited for a move to West Bromich Albion instead of heading off to Watford. Jack Wilshere was even weighing his option over a permanent move away from Arsenal. You know things are bad at Arsenal when academy players are shoving to be first out the exit door.

And all that is on top of not unloading dead weight like Mathieu Debuchy, who clearly does not feature in Arsene Wenger’s plans yet remains at Arsenal. Wenger is so daft he’d rather pay Debuchy to not play than just release him from his contract. In all Arsenal sold 10 players, and loaned out a further nine. There will surely be turmoil at the Emirates, it just depends on how much and how big of an impact it has on their performance.

While Arsenal is stagnant, others made significant improvements in the closing days of the transfer window. Tottenham finally made some signings, landing a suitable (and arguably better) replacement for Kyle Walker and not only added more striker depth, but stealing a player away from Chelsea. Everton also finalized their long speculated deal with former Swansea star Gylfi Sigurdsson .

I’m not changing my pick to win the league, Manchester City, nor having Chelsea fall out of my originally predicted second place finish, but I am rearranging the next few places in the table. I originally had Tottenham in third and Manchester United in fourth, but I’m flip flopping them.

Many people are high on United after their dominant start to the season, but I just can’t see them being disciplined enough to maintain that pace the entire season. I foresee some hiccups for United along the way that will see them drop crucial points to mount a title charge, or even take over the second spot from Chelsea. It will be a close race for the second spot, but I see Chelsea holding on by a few points. I could see it being as close as 3 points, if not less.

Tottenham’s struggles at Wembley were well publicized heading into this season, and I brought up those concerns in my preview for Spurs. It was one of the reasons I had them finish lower than they did last season. Even after the addition of Serge Aurier at right back and Fernando Llorente up top, it’s not enough to have them hang with both Manchester clubs and Chelsea. I have them moving down from my original predicted finish of third, to fourth place.

I already touched on Arsenal, who I originally had in fifth place. But after the whipping they suffered at the hands of Liverpool, and how they not only struggled to beat Leicester, but lost away at Stoke yet again, I fear it will be worse than the “same old Arsenal.” Liverpool, who I had in 6th, moves up to 5th place in my updated predictions post deadline day. Despite their attacking prowess, Jurgen Klopp still didn’t improve his defense. Holding on to Philippe Coutinho despite multiple offers close to 200 million, shows their intentions to the rest of the league.

You may be asking yourselves, who is in 6th place since you dropped Arsenal down to 7th and bumped up Liverpool to 5th. Well, I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb and tab Everton for that 6th position. Yes, despite how much cash they flashed in the transfer market, their goal differential is in the negatives. But it will take time for the new squad to gel. Everton will be the biggest beneficiaries of Arsenal being in shambles.

I feel a whole lot more comfortable about having West Brom in 8th place. They added lots of key pieces in the closing days of the summer window. The Baggies added more veteran leadership with Gareth Barry, and taking Polish international Grzegorz Krychowiak on loan was a smart move by Tony Pulis. They also managed to keep Jonny Evans. Should I go out further on that limb and say if Arsenal continue their dreadful form that West Brom would be keen to leap frog them into 7th place?

Huddersfield Town is the biggest surprise of the season so far, but I’m still not moving them out of the relegation zone, nor am I dropping Brighton & Hove down into it based on their lackluster performances. I’m not going to make knee jerk reactions based on only three games. Brighton gets back their talisman, Anthony Knockaert, who was the Championship Player of the Year last season. Brighton also added Davy Propper, who just scored two crucial goals for the Dutch in World Cup qualifiers.  Would it surprise me if Huddersfield avoids the drop and Brighton goes down instead? No. But like I said, I’m going to stick to my guns here.

Looking at other relegation predictions by bonafide pundits, I was shocked not to see more mentions of Crystal Palace. They have been dreadful so far his season, not scoring a single goal while conceding six. West Ham may have a worse goal differential, but at least they have scored. I just can’t see West Ham being this pitiful the entire season. If they do, Slaven Bilic, who is already on the hot seat, will surely be sacked. And whoever takes over the Hammers could be the boost they sorely need.

Watford is another surprise performer in this early stage of the season. But considering they only managed a draw with Brighton, I’m still tabbing them for relegation. But on a bright note, they put on an admirable performance against Liverpool where they walked away with what could be a crucial point. I threw Swansea City into the relegation hat, but they managed to pull off a miracle in the transfer market by adding Renato Sanches on loan and bringing back striker Wilfried Bony, which will help them tremendously in their fight to remain in the top flight. Many people had Burnley going down, especially after selling their top striker to Watford of all clubs, but I wasn’t so hasty. They managed to replace Andre Gray with two strikers; not only stealing a striker from Huddersfield, but also managing to snatch the signature of Championship top scorer Chris Wood from other EPL clubs he was linked with.

Other than the movers around the top of the table, I foresee everything remaining the same as my original predictions. So here is a brief rundown of my updated predications in order of finish (at least for the top half):Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton, Arsenal, West Brom, Bournemouth, Southampton. Bottom half (in no particular order): Leicester, Stoke, Burnley, West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea, Brighton. Relegation (in no particular order): Huddersfield, Watford, Crystal Palace.

 

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After my rather successful predictions last year, I decided to do the obligatory English Premier League (EPL) predictions for the 2017/18 season. I will start out by saying this year will be more difficult to predict, as with all of the top teams playing in Europe, they will all have a somewhat equally rigorous schedule. The relegation fodder is also tougher this year, as the newly promoted clubs are better than last year’s and some of the clubs that have been in the top tier of English football for a handful of seasons now have gotten worse instead of better. Just like last like last year, every club’s first mention and where the meat of the prediction begins will be in bold to make it easier to find a particular area of interest.

I will start with the clubs I am tabbing for relegation. They are (in no particular order) Watford, Crystal Palace and Huddersfield Town. I am also throwing Brighton & Hove Albion, Swansea City and Burnley into the relegation mix too. I’m fairly confident both Watford and Palace will go down, but the final team I’m not completely sold on. I lean more towards Huddersfield because their squad is not as deep as Brighton’s, and they haven’t done much in the transfer window to secure their place. But on the other hand, Brighton’s manager is Chris Hughton, who was at the helm of Norwich City for the bulk of the season when they were relegated back in 2014. While I don’t completely trust him to steer a club out of relegation zone, he has proven himself by leading a team to automatic promotion to the top flight.

Palace has been in turmoil for some time now. After a strong showing in 2014/15 they’ve been on the downturn for the past few seasons. Sacking Alan Pardew last season was a decision made easier by his poorer and poorer performances heading into Christmas. Sam Allardyce took over, and he saved the sinking ship, at least for the time being, as Big Sam once again pulled off the impossible by guiding yet another team out of relegation. But it wasn’t all good news for Palace as Big Sam opted for quasi retirement rather than continue on as manager.

Palace hasn’t brought in anyone of note during the summer transfer window. Chelsea youngster Ruben Loftus-Cheek was taken on loan, but they will still struggle to score goals while at the same time being picked apart at the back. New manager Frank de Boer, who had been looking for a job at a top club in one of the big four leagues in Europe, and had been linked with several desirable openings, eventually took the job at Inter Milan for the 2016/17 season, but wound up getting sacked only a few months into the season. He then found his way to Palace, and while he seemed to learn from some of his mistakes during his short tenure at Inter, like bringing in high price signings, he seems to be falling into another trapping; bringing in your players. The first time Premier League manager signed the versatile former Ajax man Jairo Riedewald, who de Boer had during his spell as Ajax manager (which also ended unceremoniously).  Unless Palace brings in another goal scorer and a better first choice keeper (they lost Steve Mandanda who was brought in last year to shore up the position) Palace is in for a rough go of it.

Watford has been in downward spiral for while now. They were the darlings of the Premier League in 2015/16, but the annual managerial changes have done nothing to stabilize the club. Last year was as close to disaster as possible, and it was rumored long time captain Troy Deeney wanted to leave the club. If playing for a new manager every season wasn’t enough, the Watford board decided to bring in Marco Silvo, who, while doing an admirable job at Hull City last year, couldn’t keep them up. So a club that narrowly avoided relegation last year, thought bringing in a new manager who managed a club that was relegated last year was a good idea. Watford has been active in the transfer window, but that is not always a good thing. Watford’s major problem seems to be change; too much of it. They tend to bring in loads of new players in the summer, which can upset even the best of teams. But to a team like Watford it can spell disaster.

If you remember I had Swansea City in the relegation mix last year, but I didn’t pick them as one of the three clubs going down. While I feel Swansea is in for another bottom half of the table finish, manager Paul Clement had them heading in the right direction last year after taking over from Bob Bradley. But if the Swans wind up selling Gylfi Sigurdsson, which is a strong possibility, they’re in real trouble. Swansea is not exactly an ideal spot for many players, and they’ve had a hard time luring players to join the club in recent years. Their precarious position in the Premier League only further hinders that task.

Along with Swansea, the bottom half of the table will be rounded out by (in no particular order) Burnley, Leicester City, Newcastle United, West Ham United and Stoke City. I already touched on Brighton, but I see them narrowly avoiding relegation and finishing in 17th. After a good run of form in the first half, Burnley fell on tough times in the second half, slowly falling down the table to finish in 16th, level on points with Watford in 17th. Burnley sold their best attacking threat, to fellow relegation fodder Watford no-less, and they didn’t bring in the right players to help them climb the table, instead opting for aging Stoke castoffs. Given that I also have Stoke in the bottom half doesn’t bode well for Burnley.

Stoke was another team that started out well but slid down the table in the second half. With the departure of Marko Arnautovic, one of their better players, the ship is not heading in the right direction. The Potters did get rid of a lot of aging players, and those who were surplus to requirements, freeing up wage money. But they haven’t really spent any of it. At least not on anyone who can be a difference maker, or at the very least someone who can compliment Xherdan Shaqiri, who I can see asking for a transfer just like Arnautovic.

Without Champions League commitments Leicester can focus solely on the league. It will benefit them, but not enough. They should be safe for another season, but they will finish towards the bottom of the table. They brought in the right type of players, in the right positions, but it won’t be enough to be anywhere near mid table let alone the top half.

West Ham made a splash in the transfer market with the signing of Javier Hernandez, but even Chicharito can’t solve West Ham’s problems. Bringing in Joe Hart was an odd move, as I think Darren Randolph was a much better option as a backup keeper. Hart won’t provide any competition for Adrian, so don’t expect a rise in his performance, and he won’t push Adrian out of the starting spot either, so it’s pretty much a waste of wages. I don’t see West Ham finishing terribly low, but they won’t crack the top half.

Newly promoted Newcastle should have enough to stay up and avoid going straight back down to the Championship. Rafa Benitez stayed on as manager despite the Magpies being relegated, which spoke volumes to his team. They all bought in for the 2016/17 season, and they impressively won the Championship to earn automatic promotion. I don’t see Newcastle being a yoyo club. Yes, they won’t have some important pieces like Florian Thauvin, Yoan Gouffran and Matz Sels, but they brought in enough to make due. Newcastle supporters are a fickle and demanding bunch, but after being relegated in embarrassing fashion in the 2015/16 season, managing to stay up this year should be viewed as an accomplishment worth celebrating. My only concern with Newcastle is if they will have enough goals in them.

So through process of elimination you should already have an idea of who I think will finish in the top half. Southampton, Bournemouth, West Bromwich Albion, Everton, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea (in no particular order) fill out the table in the top half.  I will cut things down further by saying Southampton, Bournemouth and West Brom will finish outside the European places.

To be honest, the team that finishes in 10th was tough to pick. It was a tossup between Bournemouth and Southampton. Every year I don’t know what to make of Southampton. And this year is no different. The club that is known for being a feeder program for the big boys of European football, has surprisingly not sold many of their players heading into the 2017/18 campaign. But they also haven’t brought in anyone of note. A new manager for the second consecutive season will also hamper them. But Southampton always finds a way to finish closer to the top half than the bottom half. So with that I have them in the top half, but only barely.

While Bournemouth made a lot of good signings in the summer, I can’t see them improving on the success of last year where they finished in 9th. Not that last year was a fluke, it’s more to do with teams around them getting better. Bournemouth shouldn’t have snuck up on anyone last year, but they did. I can’t see that happening again this season.

Just like I can’t see Tony Pulis letting his West Brom side becoming complacent again like they were last year after hitting that magic 37 point number to assure themselves safety in top flight. West Brom was surprisingly active during the transfer windows last year, bringing in somewhat high profile players like Nacer Chadli. And Pulis had another Ace up his sleeve this year, bringing in England International Jay Rodriguez from Southampton. New signings aside, West Brom did not lose too many key players. Darren Fletcher’s absences will be sorely missed from a leadership perspective, but Jay Rodriguez should fill those shoes nicely. If Salomon Rondon can improve upon last year’s performance, and Euro 2016 hero Hal Robson-Kanu can provide any of the spark he did for Wales in the Euros, West Brom could surprise many by finishing convincingly in the top half.

That is my out on a limb pick. It seems every year there is one surprise club. One team that overachieves to open everyone’s eyes. A few years ago it was Leicester City, last year it was Bournemouth. This year I think it will be West Brom.

I don’t see West Brom challenging for a European place, but Everton surely will. Everton was the busiest club in the transfer market, signing 12 players. And it wasn’t just depth signings, they were marquee ones. Jordan Pickford should shore up the goalkeeping position, Davy Klaasen has been a fixture in Ajax’s starting XI so long it would surprise most that he’s only 24 years old, and while bringing back home grown legend Wayne Rooney won’t fill Romelu Lukaku’s boots, it will go a long way to providing leadership to a team that seemed to lack confidence and direction the last couple years.

Expectations will be high for Everton, and that may negatively affect them. But Ronald Koeman is back for another year, and he had them playing much better. So it stands to reason that another year under Koeman, combined with the spending spree at Goodison Park, will at the very least see a repeat performance of last year where they earned a spot in Europe.

Now comes what most people are interested in; the big boys of the EPL. So where exactly do I see Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur finishing? It may surprise you.

Liverpool are in serious trouble heading into the 2017/18 season. They’re still in need of a quality center back, and Jurgen Klopp did not address that area in the transfer window (as of posting this before the close of the window), and better options at outside back would also be beneficial. Signing yet another attacking option show where Klopp’s priorities lie. Considering that Liverpool’s schedule may become tougher with the added Champions League commitments should they qualify for the group stage; their league play may suffer further. I predict a 6th place finish for Liverpool, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Klopp gets the sack at the end of the year if not sooner.

For yet another season there will be turmoil at the Emirates. Manager Arsene Wenger was brought back on another contract extension, this time a two year salvage job to get the Gunners back into the top four. And that task will be harder than ever given the fact that Arsenal has to contend with the rigors of the playing in the dreaded Europa League. Wenger has already started his typical excuses by saying he doesn’t like the format of the Europa League and will likely rotate his squad for those games to rest his regular starting XI. Their domestic schedule is also very tough to start the year.

Star man Alexis Sanchez wants out, but Wenger has put his foot down saying he won’t sell him. Mesut Ozil (along with many other key pieces who haven’t renewed) is also out of contract at the end of the year like Sanchez, and how much those contracts running out with be a distraction is anyone’s guess.

Arsenal did finally break open the check book to sign Alexandre Lacazette, something that was two years in the making. And they brought in outside back Sead Kolasinac on free transfer from Schalke, where he was either brilliant or pitiful. In other words; the typical Wenger signing. But that won’t be enough to contend for the title let alone a spot in the top four, especially since Wenger didn’t clear the books of dead weight like Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs, Mathieu Debuchy, Carl Jenkinson, Lucas Perez, Francis Coquelin or Chuba Akpom. He also didn’t make the more debatable moves of getting rid of players like Theo Walcott, Mohammed Elneny, David Ospina, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Laurent Koscielny or Olivier Giroud.

I see a 5th place finish for Arsenal, and the return of Wenger, or should I say Kroenke’s Kroney, for the 2018/19 season. Though I could easily see Liverpool and Arsenal swapping places.

Manchester United will be better in Jose Mourinho’s second year at the helm. His system is in place, he’s brought in more players to his liking, and most importantly; he didn’t sell David de Gea. The addition of Romelu Lukaku will get all the attention, and rightfully so. But don’t overlook the signing of Nemaja Matic. He was great at Chelsea, and more importantly, he was great at Chelsea under Mourinho. I envision a 4th place finish for United. I don’t see them having enough to surpass Tottenham, Manchester City or Chelesea.

Everyone seems to be high on Tottenham. But I find it worrisome that they didn’t sign anyone in the summer. The bigger problem though is not just the loss of Kyle Walker, but losing him to a serious rival. As it stands now Kieran Trippier will likely be Walker’s replacement, and while Trippier is a decent player, he won’t be able to fill the void left by Walker. And that is before the injury he suffered in Spurs final tune up game. As it stands it appears Michael Dier will be played out of position at right back to start the season.

Another area of concern for Tottenham is playing their home games at Wembley Stadium while their new ground is being completed next door to where White Hart Lane once stood. We all saw how playing in a new stadium negatively effected West Ham last year, and that is before even mentioning Spurs’ poor record at Wembley. Spurs will be good, but not good enough to get over that final hurdle and win the league. I see a 3rd place finish.

Last year I successfully predicted that Chelsea would win the league, and despite the sharp criticism I stood by that choice. This year I don’t see Chelsea having the same success. They already had a replacement for Nemanja Matic before they sold him, and they improved their back line with the signing of Antonio Rudiger. New signing Alvaro Morata, a possible replacement for Diego Costa should he leave in January, has not set the world on fire right out of the gate like so many people demand these days of high profile signings. He may still pan out, but right now he is not meshing within the team and his work rate leaves a lot to be desired.

The biggest reason I picked Chelsea to win the league last year was because that did not have any European commitments to contend with, so they could focus solely on the league. This year they will be in the Champions League, and you know they want to win it. That added schedule will have a negative impact on them, which will have Chelsea finish in 2nd place.

With all that said, I predict Manchester City will win the league. They brought in the typical City signings; high priced and talented. They dipped their bucket into the eager to sell Monaco well and came out with two outstanding players in Bernardo Silva and Benjamin Mendy. Not only do those additions add depth at position where they already have one of the best in the world, it also adds strength to a position they were in desperate need of. And that is before mentioning the signings of right backs Danilo and Kyle Walker, another position City were in desperate need to improve.

Since City improved their one area of weakness, and cleared a ton of dead weight off their books (not that City needs extra funds) there should be nothing stopping them. If that wasn’t scary enough for the rest of the league, City’s schedule is fairly easy; especially at both the beginning and end, with ridiculously easy months sprinkled in the middle.