Last year my predictions were pitiful. I got every division winner wrong aside for New England and the Rams, I didn’t even get one Super Bowl team. I was done in more by under achievers more so than over achievers. I’m sure it will happen again this year, but surprises are part of what make sports fun to watch, unless of course your favorite team under performs. So let’s start with the AFC and work our way to the NFC.
AFC East
- New England 12-4
- New York Jets 8-8
- Buffalo 5-11
- Miami 3-12
Tom Brady has shown no indication he is ready to retire. Neither has Bill Belichick. Which is something everyone outside of New England is looking forward to. This year will be more difficult for the Patriots with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, but the team always finds a way to win. They will be Super Bowl favorites once again, and they will easily win the division and get a first round bye. After New England this is one of the more interesting divisions, not because it’s competitive, but because this division would be the worst in football if not for them.
The Jets have made a lot of changes, bringing in arguably the best running back in the league as a free agent, and making an eye opening head coaching hire in Adam Gase. Sam Darnold will get better, but it won’t be enough to make the playoffs. Though if there was one team that I wouldn’t be surprised to sneak into the playoffs, it’s the Jets.
Buffalo and Miami are two of the worst teams in the league. Miami’s quarterback situation is questionable at best. And Buffalo still doesn’t have the offensive personnel (even before cutting LeSean McCoy) around Josh Rosen to help him win. Both defenses are towards the bottom of the barrel, which only makes things more difficult on their quarterbacks and offense as a whole. To makes matters worse for the Bills, I see this being a make or break season for head coach Sean McDermott, and he may take more risks hoping to get as many wins as possible to save his job if he’s feeling the heat.
AFC North
- Cleveland 10-6
- Baltimore 9-7
- Pittsburgh 8-8
- Cincinnati 3-13
Almost everyone is high on Cleveland, myself included. And we’re all right to be. But I still don’t have both feet completely in the bandwagon. I have them winning the division simply because the rest of the division took a step back. Probably the biggest hurdle for the Browns is keeping the locker room in check. There are a lot of egos in there now, with lots of big personalities. I don’t love their head coaching hire, but it’s not all bad because they promoted from within.
Honestly it was a toss up for me as to who finishes second in this division. I’m giving the nod to Baltimore because they have a more talented roster. Both teams’ schedules are equally difficult. It was about time Cincinnati got rid of Marvin Lewis, but it’s going to be another difficult season. Andy Dalton is not looking like the next great quarterback as he did earlier in his career. And other than AJ Green, the Bengals simply don’t have any talent. And guess what? AJ Green will miss significant time yet again with another injury.
AFC South
- Houston 9-7
- Tennessee 8-8
- Indianapolis 7-9
- Jacksonville 5-11
I was going to pick Indy to win the division. They have a talented roster, with most of it returning from last year’s surprising success. But they live and die with Andrew Luck. And since he abruptly retired, they are going to have a long season. The fact that he was booed off the field during the third pre-season game says it all. So Houston wins the division almost by default.
I never know what to make of the Titans. They’re a middle of the road team with average quarterback play, but have a strong running game and a good offensive line with an adequate defense. They benefit most from the Luckless Colts, but it’s still not enough to make the playoffs.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Jacksonville exceeds expectations. This will be a true test of Nick Foles’ ability. The Jaguars will almost certainly be better without Blake Bortles under center, but how much better remains to be seen. Their defense only seems to show up when they want to, and their running game needs a bounce back season.
AFC West
- Kansas City 13-3
- Chargers 12-4
- Oakland 6-10
- Denver 5-11
The most top laden division in the league, it will be a battle between the Chiefs and Chargers. Neither team made significant improvements, but neither had significant losses in free agency. After them it’s a crapshoot. I won’t rock the boat and have the Chargers leapfrog the Chiefs. I think we can call agree that the two Chiefs and Chargers matchups this season will be two of the must watch games of the season, especially the Week 17 game, which may decide the division and who gets a first round bye or possibly home field advantage.
I know there is a lot of drama and distractions in Oakland right now. But I just don’t see Denver having the offense to win enough games to finish ahead of the Raiders. Denver’s offensive line is bad, and newly acquired Joe Flacco is not the best fit for the Broncos’ new scheme. Plus he doesn’t have anybody to throw the ball to. It’s a good situation for Drew Lock to sit behind and learn, but don’t be surprised if he’s thrust into action too soon, further hurting the Broncos’ record.
NFC East
- Dallas 11-5
- Philadelphia 10-6
- Giants 4-12
- Washington 3-13
In recent years the NFC East has been an up and down division. This year I see it being middle of the road. Philadelphia’s season hinges on Carson Wentz staying healthy more than ever since they let Nick Foles leave in free agency. The Cowboys offensive stars have a lot to play for, as Dak Prescott wants a big money new contract and so does Ezekiel Elliot (if he doesn’t get an extension prior to the start of the season or early on). Plus the Cowboys get a great slot receiver with the addition of Randall Cobb. Pairing him with Amari Cooper was a smart pickup by Dallas’ front office. Cobb’s best years in Green Bay came playing in the slot next to Jordy Nelson. I’m picking Dallas to win the division because a lot has to go right for Philly to find success.
Both the Giants and Redskins are in rebuild mode. Both have awful veteran quarterbacks in place ahead of first round rookies. Both have awful offenses with questionable defenses. Maybe the most intriguing story in the NFL this season will be who finishes last in the NFC East.
NFC North
- Minnesota 11-5
- Green Bay 10-6
- Chicago 9-7
- Detroit 7-9
This is the tightest division in football, and will produce two playoff teams. Last year I went all in with Minnesota. Mainly because I thought they finally had a good quarterback. Yes Kirk Cousins didn’t meet expectations in terms of wins, but he didn’t have an awful season. He threw for over 4,000 yards with 30 touchdowns to only 10 interceptions. I see the Bears coming back down to earth, which will further help the Vikings. Green Bay is another question mark this season.
The Packers filled a lot of holes. The offensive line looks better. They not only actually spent money in free agency, but did so on defense. Surprisingly my only question is the offense. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have much talent to throw to, plus he has to adjust to a new scheme which might have him limit his hallmark ingenuity out of the pocket. And I’m still not convinced by the running game. But complacency, the buzz word in Green Bay during the offseason, should be squashed with the new coaching changes. And I think another year under Mike Pettine will help the much improved defense
Detroit will be improved, but not enough to contend in any division, let alone this one. Matt Patricia will continue to try and bring New England to Motown, but it’s still another year or two away from taking off. They may steal some wins here and there, but the Lions simply don’t have the personnel to contend
NFC South
- New Orleans 13-3
- Atlanta 9-7
- Carolina 7-9
- Tampa Bay 5-11
Drew Brees and the Saints will once again reign over this division. Atlanta will give them a bigger challenge this year, but they won’t be consistent enough to mount a serious threat to New Orleans’ crown. Carolina doesn’t have the passing game required to compete in this division, let alone the league as a whole, and there are still questions about Cam Newton’s health. Tampa Bay will be better under new head coach Bruce Arians, but only slightly. The Browns job was a better destination, and come December Arians will likely be wishing he was shoveling snow than sitting on the beach.
NFC West
- Rams 13-3
- Seattle 9-7
- San Francisco 8-8
- Arizona 4-12
The Rams will run away with this division again. While Seattle and San Fran battle it out for second place, which ultimately will only cost them a better draft pick and a tougher schedule in 2020. I will admit success in San Francisco depends on their health, while Seattle’s schemes are becoming more and more antiquated. But the trade for Jadeoveon Clowney sent shock waves around the NFL, not only because Seattle gave up next to nothing for him, but because they somehow managed to replace pro bowler Frank Clark (a head scratching move in the offseason), with a more productive pass rusher. Because of this trade I have Seattle finishing just ahead of the Niners.
I have no clue what Arizona is doing. They literally burned a first round pick on a quarterback. How many teams even contemplate that. Not only new head coach, but NFL rookie coach (head coach or otherwise) Kliff Kingsbury has likely been given too much control on roster decisions, as evident by giving up on 2018 first round pick Josh Rosen to select Kyler Murray number one overall.
Rashan Gary is already looking like a bust, not getting any tackles during the pre-season despite playing significant minutes. Aaron Rodgers has nobody to throw to. Teams will double Davante Adams, taking him away, forcing the other receivers to make plays, which won’t come. There is still no running game. The offensive line is a mess. The defense has a lot to prove. And the rest of the division is getting better, if it hasn’t already passed Green Bay by.
AFC Playoffs
Wildcard Round
Cleveland vs. Chargers
Houston vs. Baltimore
Cleveland made leaps and bounds this season, but it will be a rude awakening in the playoffs going up against a hungry Chargers team and veteran quarterback Philip Rivers. Houston and Baltimore is a battle of mediocrity, but with much needed offensive line support, Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense will exploit a depleted Ravens defense to advance.
Divisional Round
Kansas City vs. Chargers
Houston vs. New England
Once Again Rivers and the Bolts come up short, while New England cake walks into the Conference Championship game for what feels like forever
Championship Game
Kansas City vs. New England
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Minnesota vs. Philadelphia
Dallas vs. Green Bay
This is all of course assuming Carson Wentz remains healthy for the entire season. If not it could be a mystery team facing the Vikings. Regardless, I still see Minnesota getting past the Eagles, but it will be a close game. Dallas won’t let another playoff game against Green Bay slip their grasp. They will play this game at home, with a chip on their shoulder, and with an Ezekiel Elliott (assuming he signs an extension at some point during the season) that did not play a 16 game season. Dallas creates matchup problems, and Green Bay can be easily shut down on offense due to a questionable receiving corps and offensive line.
Divisional Round
Rams vs. Minnesota
New Orleans vs. Dallas
The Rams should once again reach the Conference Championship game, easily getting past the Vikings at home. New Orleans will do the same at home against Dallas. Not a very intriguing NFC round of games here.
Championship Game
New Orleans vs. Rams
After everything that happened in the NFC Championship game last season, there will be a lot of scrutiny on this matchup. I feel like the Saints will play above it though. The Rams are good, but the Saints are just better. And if Dallas is playing with a chip on their shoulder in their Wild Card matchup against Green Bay, New Orleans is playing with an even bigger one throughout the entire playoffs.
Super Bowl
Kansas City vs. New Orleans
This will be an epic Super Bowl should my predictions hold true. Two high powered offenses with more than adequate defenses? Who breaks first? New Orleans at first, but they will come from behind (but not by much) to take home the Lombardi Trophy in what may be Drew Brees’ final season. I see KC attempting some big plays to start off the game, but once New Orleans gets their head back on straight, they rally back to win. Even if this isn’t a high scoring game, it will still be far more exciting than last year’s snooze fest of a Super Bowl.